Five hypotheses for the life of our oil world
If you look closely at the problem of the global economic downturn and how this process with oil prices, we will see the multifaceted world of economic theories, where also there is a place for conspiracies. Why not?
Like any other search for truth and cause-effect relationships, ideas of conspiracy have the same right to life as any other hypothesis. Scientific and professional approach is to either try to refute, or, then too, to recognize a particular concept. Such fun nowadays indulges even The Fiscal Times.
Let's look at oil prices and crisis in Russia. Say at once that accepted as immutable truth by all economists in the world – the global economic crisis cannot just go and "fixable." It can only be experienced. And so, how, in what capacity, with what we will come out is another story.
At the moment the Russian government to adequately cope with the task set before him – has been maintaining economic stability at the expense of the many tools of anti-crisis order.
When world oil prices will be normalized and will no longer fall (which is considered inevitable), business will again begin to invest in the economy. If stability was maintained even in these difficult times, when economic growth and GDP investors of the Russian Federation will be confident that their earnings subsequently exceed all expectations. And it is natural. The main thing for the government now is not to slip into hyperinflation and a serious budget deficit. As such we have not, and in the near future is not expected. Another good idea would be to maintain foreign exchange reserves. But we have a full order, as far as I know.
Meanwhile, global ratings and evaluated the performance of our senior managers. Anti-crisis tactics Nabiullina unanimously recognized the best crisis management strategy of the heads of Central Banks. And not only in emerging economies, but also (according to reports) all over the world!
However, what happens to the oil? The five most likely reasons that economists are silent shy, we will touch on.
The first (conspiratorial) version of events – Saudi Arabia "heats" of Iran. It is clear why this argument may have a right to exist: how the States does not want anyone to share world domination, and SA for any price not wish to voluntarily part with their power in the middle East. And after the lifting of sanctions with Iran without drowning it again emerged from obscurity once a major competitor to the Saudis to stay on the leading positions would be simply impossible.
Second: the Saudis and the US want to hurt Russia. Quite a plausible theory: it's almost the same as the first theory, but only in a more global scale. Besides, "kill" two "birds with one stone", so to speak – both Russia and Iran.
Third: confusion and division in the government and among the senators of States regarding the acts in relation to foreign partners suggests that there was a collusion of Saudi Arabia and President Obama.
Here the President of the United States appears even in some sort of noble in the role – he loves the outdoors, has repeatedly supported the development of renewable energy, and shale oil spoils the environment of his beloved America, and poisons people. So he decided — enough is enough... I like this version. But I don't believe that Obama is able to overcome so many obstacles alone in order to do the same, what do you do in the whole world... Well, who believe in what...
Fourth: to drown in the excesses of OPEC oil. Due to the excess of supply over demand Nigeria and Iraq already in a panic, and in Venezuela declared a state of emergency. But the Saudis also included in OPEC, and did not blow, and not even worried — SA black gold continues to flow and be extracted by a wide river... the Cost of oil in SA is extremely low, so even $ 20 per barrel would be acceptable to the Saudis price. And other OPEC countries will become poor and bankrupt to the extreme, allowing Riyadh to capture new markets...
Fifth, and most unexpected: Saudi Arabia is taking revenge on the U.S. for scientific and technical achievements and the achievements of Americans in the extraction of shale oil. Well, here I do not know, here is my limited imagination. But if to dream, it is possible in this version to find a logical link, aside from "trivial" revenge out of jealousy. There must be something else... for Example, to remove the U.S. from the third place on volume of production in the world, where the country has risen due to shale development. Maybe it's a game. Why Prince of Saudi Arabia can't play this game? Recklessly.
I want to see the first theory is indirectly confirmed yesterday April 1, 2016, when the Saudi Prince said his country is ready to reduce oil production, if it will do the same and Iran. However, as reported by Bloomberg, this statement triggered a new fall in prices. Go figure them...
As you can see, the word "conspiracy theory" is not always such a terrible, incomprehensible or ludicrous, as are usually those who won in this theory the title of "unscrupulous" culprit a trouble. Everything is quite logical. And you really try to disprove these hypotheses, if you will. Only the rules of science, not in the style of "Ah, it's all nonsense and made up."
Alena Bazhov
http://gosnovosti.com/2016/04/...
