Oil and gas for rubles only
The strategic goal of the Russian Federation in the middle East, among other things, this is through the collapse of the oil monarchies of the Gulf to dump the dollar. Fiction?
We all live in the information space, and like it or not, in the mind of each of us develops some kind of picture of what is happening. Everyone is their own. Your offer, that is to say, the view from the couch, on the situation in Syria, as well as one of the options for further developments. I have to say: GRU and Mossad for some reason I do not report, so all the information is teleyaschika.
Russia was involved in Syria, and did it myself, with ease. Can't stay away. Where to put the comma is unclear. The operation was originally claimed as air support for Assad's army. Gradually tightened surface ships and submarines, then the newest fighter jets and air defense systems.
Today is not hidden that there are terrestrial component, at least the engineers, spotters and advisers. What are the goals of Russia — is unclear. The officially announced goal is the destruction of militants who may return to Russia — is not convincing.
Many Russian citizens are fighting in Ukrainian territorial battalions under the guidance (forbidden in Russia — approx. ed.) of the "Right sector", but to bomb these militants to prevent their return to Russia, no one is going.
So for that Russian war? For a future military base, the prevention of Qatari gas to the Mediterranean sea?
Briefly: the interests in Syria are the main actors
The United States remains true to their "theory of controlled chaos". The destruction of the state and the randomization of the entire region, excluding the Union oil monarchies. Then attempt to move the chaos and war in the direction of Central Asia and the Caucasus (Karabakh is the first call), assuming that Russia will spend huge resources to contain. Strategic goal — all must be bad. From unstable regions of the first run of money.
Guess from once, where in the end will be this capital. That's right — in American debt. Time is working against US, even 20 years ago they were able to conduct two major wars in different parts of the world simultaneously. Today, for a recognition of officials of the Pentagon, resources enough for only one. If the trend continues, in 20 years Americans will not be able to do this.
Turkey's actions against Syria is possible to understand (but not forgive). For them, some Syrian territory is the same as Crimea and Donbas to Russia, and Turkey is not averse to tear from Syria some of the pieces. If not Assad and the Syrian Central government, it will make it much easier. The example of the Crimea before the eyes.
The Kurds are the most motivated and the most powerful, just they don't know it yet. Craving of peoples to nation-States — a great power that took down a huge Empire. The Kurds carry on their game, they are a real military force and therefore we need as an ally to all. More recently, they were considered terrorists and separatists, and today intelligently positioned as freedom fighters and require only autonomy, but we know that the appetite comes while eating. The question of the independence of Kurdistan a matter of time, Kurds are waiting for favorable military and political situation.
Saudi Arabia wants to topple Syria because Assad is an ally of Iran, main rival of the Saudis in the region. The friend of my enemy is my enemy.
Iran supports Assad as an ally against Saudi Arabia. If you fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the same position Iran will be irreparably damaged. It is this perspective does not leave Iran with other behavior choices, but to support Assad. "Sworn friends" — Iran and Russia — are forced to unite in a tactical Alliance, but fully trust each other there.
Israel is the main "looking" for the region is carefully watching the whole thing, there is an understanding that when all — Hezbollah, Sunni, Shia, Wahabi — finish pounding each other, they all together attacked Israel. In addition, the Israelis do not mind to tear the Golan heights from Syria collapsing, but the Jews are smart guys and fanfare they do not, why take something that actually belongs to you already.
Created by the United States combat ISIS (an organization banned in Russia — approx. ed.) as the conduit of American interests in the middle East was partially out of control, became radicalized and began the steps to create a worldwide Caliphate. According to military experts, the combined armed forces of the United States and Russia could destroy ISIS in three or four months. But the US and Russia have different views on the future of the region.
The free Syrian army as a unified force exists mainly on paper, really is a lot of groups without a Central command, whose actions are difficult to coordinate.
The EU is amorphous, not in operational decision-making is strongly influenced by the USA, partly lost its sovereignty and Syria did not want. He would like to be left alone, but who will leave? Him hanged refugees.
Looking at this situation, it is necessary to recognize the Syrian army, even with the support of the Russian Federation, to recapture the entire territory and to win a military victory (taking into account all external factors — the Turks, the Kurds, the US, Saudis, etc) is not possible. In addition, the Syrian society is divided on ethnic, religious and other grounds. But even if the military victory is won, still Assad will sooner or later go away. Will the new Syrian leader to comply with the Russian-Syrian contracts — doubtful. Or its interests with Russia gets going (which is already rendered service), or it simply will buy. East — a delicate matter, here everything is bought and sold, and Assad the only exception to the rule that proves the rule.
So what is the interest?
Why Russia supports Assad who is not an angel, besides, ISIS could bomb and without his consent, as is sometimes the Americans are doing? Why Russia officially joined in a "foreign" war thousands of kilometers from their native shores, if she didn't want to do this in his backyard, in Ukraine? Is keeping Assad in power is more important than saving the lives of the residents of Donbass, which also would not hurt to support videoconferencing?
The only reason in my opinion is legal, does not violate international law the deployment of troops to the middle East. Further, Russia will act, and is already in force, pragmatic and cynical. No friends, only interests. In martial arts there are techniques in which the opponent is used against his own movement and inertia. Putin is a strategist, as in Ukraine, he plays a long long con for years.
Russia does not need only Donbass, Russia needs Ukraine at least to the Dnieper, Russia does not need Syria, Russia needs a foothold. Russia has learned to play by Western rules, declared the partial withdrawal of troops is a good PR move. The Americans have already stated several times about the timing of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, took off with this information and image dividends, and things are there. Another truce is regrouping and pre-war maneuvering. Live with wolves — a wolf howl. The current configuration of Syria, few people are satisfied with, and therefore waiting for her section. Then dominoes will fall many. If the process cannot be stopped, it must lead.
Engaged in launched USA chaotization region, the Russian Federation will try to keep the geography of the conflict within the Middle East and move all this chaos and war in the direction of the oil monarchies. This work is already underway, the press tries not to write, but the war in Yemen is coming, and this war is at the borders of Saudi Arabia. Applied tactic: anything that weakens the US and its allies is good, but all that reinforces is bad, and all the action takes place on this basis.
Russia began to pursue a real policy, which comes primarily from practical considerations, not ideological or moral, and began to negotiate with everyone — even with the devil, at least with Hezbollah, Hamas and all groups, with the Kurds and Iran. If you can use them to their advantage, so they need to use.
So what's Qatari gas? The war plan will show — so you go, you see, and soon Qatar will not. But if the Saudis shaken, then shaken and the dollar and if the dollar is shaken, then the price of oil will soar into space. And here Putin will strike a major blow: oil and gas for rubles only. All — States can be closed. What we wanted to prove. Maybe this is the main interest.
Putin little things are not exchanged and goals are global. The Arab spring is not over yet, and not all will survive. The strategic goal of the Russian Federation in the middle East, among other things, this is through the collapse of the oil monarchies of the Gulf to dump the dollar. Fiction? I agree. But in the winter of 1941 Soviet tanks in Berlin, too, was thought a fiction.
Lyrical end
West is West, Russia is Russia, and never the TWAIN shall meet. Russia is simply too powerful and big to fit into a vassal world of the Anglo-Saxons. The spiral of history took another turn — and the world once again entered a period of political instability. Out of balance, and imbalance may occur in different parts of the world. Yesterday's Ukraine, today — Syria, where it will burst tomorrow — is unknown.
Tops (USA) as good as before, live can not, the lower classes (Russia) so badly to live no longer want, and the whole world will shake until a new balance. What will happen next, how everything goes? No one knows. Know only stars that are a thousand years will be as well tired to remain silent and flicker high into infinity.
